Reacting to the UK European election results this morning, Labours Jeremy Corbyn said, These elections became a proxy second referendum. Over the coming days we will have conversations across our party and movement, and reflect on these results on both sides of the Brexit divide. Lets take him at his word.
If this really had been a second referendum on Brexit, what would the results have been? These charts show that Remain would have won, easily. Our first chart shows vote totals for all the major parties. I have grouped them into bundles of Remain voters on the left and Leave voters on the right. All the parties except for Labour and Conservative had solid Remain or Leave positions.
Only the Conservatives and Labour went into the elections with compromise positions: The Conservatives favouring Prime Minister Theresa Mays withdrawal agreement which retains a customs union; and Labour favouring a softer Brexit that keeps Britain more closely tied to the European Unions single market.
To account for those compromise positions — and with the assumption that most Labour voters are Remainers and most Conservatives are Leavers — I broke out the Remain-Leave totals both with and without the main parties. No matter which way you cut it, a clear majority of voters in this election went for Remain-oriented parties: BI If the totals were presented as a binary choice in a second referendum, the result would have been: Remain: 55.
3% Leave: 44.7% Thats a 10-point majority favouring Remain. In total the remain bloc won 9.3 million votes while the leave contingent brought in 7 million. BI This is not wishful thinking. The results underscore the monthly averages of tracking polls taken by YouGov ever since the 2016 Brexit referendum.
YouGov polls show a majority of Brits think Brexit was the wrong decision Pantheon Macroeconomics What does all this mean? Two things: Nigel Farages Brexit Party may have come first in last nights results but Britain is a solid Remain-leaning country.
A second referendum would reverse the Brexit decision — so expect Farage and the hard Brexiteers inside the Conservative party to resist a peoples vote or a confirmatory vote tooth and nail. They know they will lose if that vote takes place. As for Corbyn and Labour, the partys pro-Brexit position is costing it votes.
. It came third in last weeks vote after a strong showing from the pro-Remain Liberal Democrats. Its European vote is now almost on par with the Green Party — a previously unthinkable proposition. A Labour pivot to outright support for a second referendum could shore up.....